I think we are entering the uncomfortable middle phase: less blind excitement, more demand for measurable ROI. That shift can look like a bubble popping, but it can also be a healthy market filter.

What may burst

  • Thin wrapper products without durable distribution.
  • Startups with high inference burn and weak monetization.
  • Narrative-first companies that cannot prove retention.

What likely survives

  • Infrastructure providers tied to real enterprise workloads.
  • Vertical AI products with proprietary workflows and switching costs.
  • Teams that can combine model quality with disciplined unit economics.

The next phase is not about who has the flashiest demo. It is about who can compound trust and margin over multiple years.

Sources